By John Robison
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One of the questions I'm asked most often is - 'how is it possible for a slot machine to be a random device and for a machine to also pay back a certain percentage of the money played through it?' If the results are truly random, people argue, then the payback should be random too.
Jul 01, 2008 Advocates for the gambling industry disagree, claiming electronic gaming machines are benign — designed to entertain, not manipulate. Problem gambling prevalence studies show that gambling addicts are much more likely to play electronic gaming machines (slot machines, poker machines, video lottery terminals) than table games like blackjack. Are Electronic Slot Machines Rigged, sls casino monorail, agua caliente casino seafood buffet, pokeratlas pa.
Despite the fact that this governor function does not exist and in all jurisdictions whose regulations I’m familiar with, it is possible for the results on slot machines to be determined at random and for machines to have specific payback percentages.
It’s difficult to reconcile the fact that results on slot machines are random and for us to be able to know what will happen overall on a machine. Let me illustrate how this is possible with my RWB Ping Pong Ball Game.
Suppose I have a basket that contains 100 ping pong balls. Eighty ping pong balls are white, 15 are blue, and five are red. You draw a ball at random from the basket. There’s a cover on the basket, so you can’t tell what color ball you’re drawing. Also, you can’t tell the balls apart, so you’re no more likely to draw one ball over any other. After you draw the ball, you record the color and put the ball back in the basket.
As you repeat this action, you will find that the percentage of draws that were red balls gets closer and closer to 80%, the percentage of draws that were blue balls gets closer and closer to 15%, and the percentage of draws that were red balls gets closer and closer to 5%.
We know that this will happen because you draw the balls at random and each ball is equally likely to be drawn by you. But it is not equally likely that you will draw any particular color. Eighty percent of the balls are white, so we expect 80% of your draws to be white. Similarly for the blue and red balls.
Even though you drew the balls completely at random, the distribution of colors you recorded will match the distribution of colors in the total population of ping pong balls in the basket. Random does not mean that everything is completely unpredictable and unknowable.
Now let’s make the game more interesting. You have to pay me $1 each time you want to draw. When you draw a white ball, I keep the dollar. When you draw a blue ball, I return your dollar. And when you draw a red ball, I pay you $16. A nice payoff for drawing the red ball.
Looking at this game from my perspective, I have a 15% chance of paying you $1 and a 5% chance of paying you $16. Calculating this out, we have 0.15(1) + 0.05(16) = 0.15 + 0.80 = 0.95. On the average, then, for every $1 you give me to play, I will return 95 cents to you.
The RWB Ping Pong Ball Game is just like a 95% payback slot machine. Even though the outcomes in both games are chosen completely at random, each pays back 95% of the money played in the long run.
A slot machine works very much like the RWB Ping Pong Ball Game. Conceptually, there is a basket of ping pong balls for each reel. But instead of having different colors on the balls, these balls have symbols representing the different symbols on the reels on them. Some symbols appear on more balls than other symbols.
Let’s set up a basket of ping pong balls for a reel from a real Double Diamond slot machine. Even though there are 22 symbols and blanks on the reel, our basket will have 72 ping pong balls in it. Having more balls in the basket than we have stops on the reel allows us to alter the probability of landing any particular symbol on the payline from what it appears to be from counting the number of times it appears on the reel and dividing by 22.
The reel has 11 blanks on it, but I’m going to put 31 blank ping pong balls in the basket. Half the stops on the physical reel are blanks, but slightly less than half the ping pong balls are blank, so it’s actually a little less likely than it appears for a blank to land on the payline on this reel. There’s only one cherry on the reel, but I’m going to put two ping pong balls with cherries in the basket.
All of the other symbols – single bar, double bars, triple bars, 7, and Double Diamond – appear twice on the reel, but the number of ping pong balls with each symbol in the basket is 25, 4, 6, 2, and 2, respectively. We need about 6.5 ping pong balls with each of these symbols in the basket to have the probability of drawing a ping pong ball carrying the symbol be the same as what appears to be the probability of having the symbol land on the payline from looking at the reel, so you can see how different the true probabilities are from what the reel makes you think they are.
Just as with the RWB Ping Pong Ball Game, the more you play this Double Diamond machine, the closer the distribution of symbols landing on the payline will get to the distribution of ping pong balls with each symbol in the basket.
Even though it sounds like random should mean completely unpredictable, the only thing we can't predict is what color ping pong ball you'll draw next or what symbols will appear on the payline next. Because we know the distribution of ping pong balls in our basket and the casino knows the distribution of symbols on the slot machine's reels, we can predict -- no, more than predict, we can calculate with near certainty -- how much my game and how much a slot machine will pay back in the long run.
The only reason we can't be dead certain of how much a machine will actually pay back is because the outcome of each game is truly chosen at random and there is no function forcing the payback to a particular number. But given enough draws or spins, my RWB Ping Pong Ball game and a 95% payback slot machine will both pay back very, very, very close to 95%.
To sum up, there's no attempt in the programming of a machine to force it to a particular payback percentage. There’s no need to. Random sampling from a known population takes care of it automatically.
Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at [email protected].
Because of the volume of mail he receives, John regrets that he can't reply to every question.
Because of the volume of mail he receives, John regrets that he can't reply to every question.
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.080870
PMID: 18591518
The room is abuzz with beeps, bells and flashing lights. Well-dressed men and women wander about, pushing buttons and pulling levers, watching cherries and sevens spin on liquid crystal displays. But these men and women aren't here for fun. They're here for business, and their business is gambling.
From April 29 to May 1, 2008, the Palais des Congrès de Montréal in Montréal, Quebec, hosted the 12th annual Canadian Gaming Summit. In a massive showroom, slot machine makers from across the country presented their wares: tall, noisy boxes decorated with images of pigs and pirates and martini glasses.
How To Win Electronic Slot Machines
Though diverse in appearance, all slot machines, according to some mental health experts, have something in common: they are psychologically deceptive and make gambling addicts of people who aren't predisposed to addictions.
“We've been treating these people like they're messed up, but it's the machines that are messing them up,” says Roger Horbay, a former addiction therapist who now runs Game Planit Interactive Corp., a company that advocates for consumer protection in the gambling industry.
Advocates for the gambling industry disagree, claiming electronic gaming machines are benign — designed to entertain, not manipulate.
Problem gambling prevalence studies show that gambling addicts are much more likely to play electronic gaming machines (slot machines, poker machines, video lottery terminals) than table games like blackjack. A 2003 survey indicated that almost half of video lottery terminal players in Nova Scotia were at risk for problem gambling. The Alberta Alcohol and Drug Abuse Commission reported in 2003 that 71% of its clients with gambling addictions had no problems before playing video lottery terminals. One study found that some 60% of gaming machine revenue in Canada comes from problem gamblers. By contrast, problem gamblers accounted for less than a quarter of lottery and bingo revenues (Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 2004;4[1]:33-45).
Canadians hooked on gaming machines suffer little inconvenience in finding their next fix. Ontario has about 22 000 gaming machines, all slots. Quebec has a mix of slots and video lottery terminals, almost 19 000 in total. In Newfoundland, where bars have no competition from casinos or racetracks, there are about 2500 video lottery terminals: per capita, 3 times more than Ontario.
All those machines make for big profits. Of the $4.7 billion reaped by Ontario's gambling industry in fiscal year 2006/07, $3 billion came from slot machines. The percentage of fiscal year 2006/07 gambling revenues from electronic gaming machines in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta was 79% (of $615 million), 83% (of $535 million) and 87% (of $2.2 billion), respectively.
Before gaming machines exploded in popularity in the 1990s, most of the gambling addicts Horbay saw had other psychosocial problems. This indicated they were likely predisposed to addiction. But as the number of problem machine gamblers increased, he noticed many didn't exhibit other addictive behaviours. They were what Horbay refers to as “normals.”
“In other games, like poker, most people have misconceptions about their skill levels. They are easier to treat. But machine gamblers really are conditioned by the machine. You get the impression you can beat the machine.”
As a result, says Horbay, many people have been led to believe they are suffering from cognitive distortion when, in reality, they are reaching proper conclusions based on misleading information. Research out of the University of Waterloo shows that the features of a typical slot machine suggest that players should win about 2 to 5 times the amount they wager, which, if true, would mean casinos lose money on slots (Journal of Gambling Issues 2007;20:215-33). Logic dictates that casinos wouldn't line their floors with row upon row of slot machines if they weren't cash cows. But critics of gambling practices claim the devices condition users to abandon logic.
Robert Simpson, chief executive officer of the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre, claims slot machines are designed to create an illusion of favourable odds that gets people playing — and keeps them playing. “All these design characteristics in EGMs [electronic gaming machines] give people the wrong impression of how the machines work, such that they actually believe that over time, the more they play, the more likely they are to win.”
![How a slot machine works How a slot machine works](/uploads/1/2/5/2/125201105/188601653.jpg)
Horbay and Simpson both cite a slot machine feature called virtual reel mapping as being particularly deceptive. Old mechanical slot machines had a set number of reels containing a set number of symbols, each equally likely to appear on the payline after each spin. In the 1980s, however, slots makers incorporated electronics into their products and programmed them to weigh particular symbols. Thus the odds of losing symbols appearing on the payline became disproportionate to their actual frequency on the physical reel. The 1984 patent granted on this technology (United States Patent No. 4 448 419) states: “It is important to make a machine that is perceived to present greater chances of payoff than it actually has within the legal limitations that games of chance must operate.”
The Waterloo research paper indicates virtual reel mapping also increases the probability that winning combinations will appear just above or below the payline, which, according to addiction experts, makes gamblers believe they are always on the verge of winning. Gamblers are also largely unaware that the reels on slot machines are often unbalanced. On a 3-reel machine, for example, a winning symbol may appear more often on the first 2 reels than on the last. Many modern gaming machines use electronic animation instead of reels, but a disconnect remains between how the game is displayed and how it actually operates. Other features considered deceptive by critics include differing symbol sizes (winning symbols are larger), stop buttons (give the illusion of control though the outcome is determined on initial wager) and frequent small wins (accompanied by flashing lights and bells).
Bill Rutsey, chief executive officer of the Canadian Gaming Association, an organization that calls itself “the voice of Canada's gaming entertainment industry,” says most gamblers know gaming machines have random outcomes and play them for excitement. Virtual reel mapping and unbalanced reels are not deceptive features, he says.
“The whole issue there is did you win or didn't you win. If you didn't win, you didn't win. I think it's pretty clear when you're playing the game whether or not you've won, or when you do win and when you don't win … whether the reel is balanced or unbalanced, you end up with the same result. Either you have a winning combination or you have a losing combination.”
The reason problem gamblers prefer gaming machines is also easy to explain, says Rutsey. Research shows that about 1% of the population are problem gamblers. Since about 75% of casino patrons list slots as their favourite game, it only makes sense, he says, that many problem gamblers fall within that majority. To claim the machines make addicts is untrue, he adds. “It's kind of like saying beer causes alcoholism because most alcoholics drink beer.”
Horbay, however, considers machine gaming the most addictive, and yet least regulated, form of gambling. Casinos would never get away with using loaded dice or with stacking a deck of cards, he says, which are akin to the deceptive features of gaming machines. He proposes that the government phase out virtual reel mapping (already illegal in Australia and New Zealand) and unbalanced reels. Gamblers would also suffer fewer problems, he says, if electronic gaming machines displayed how much they stand to lose on each bet.
“The treatment field has been doing these players a disservice,” says Horbay. “Let's stop labeling and pathologizing them. These are normal people. Let's look at the source of the harm.” — Roger Collier, CMAJ
Slot machines that are based on reels have variant programming, meaning that the payout percentage may vary above and below its standard payout percentage. For example, if you are playing on a machine with a payout rate of 95% at times it might pay out 93% or 97%. Weighing Your Chances. Things to remember when playing slot machines. Apr 24, 2019 Progressive slot machines have life-changing prizes but horrible odds. They take a part of the money they’d normally pay to players to put toward the progressive jackpot. Remember, casinos don’t dip into their own pockets when they can avoid it. Jackpots are funded by the losing spins on the slot machine.
Figure. It may seem as if uncertainties shroud slot machines and other electronic gaming machines, but several things are clear: they're a cash cow for governments and use technologies that are considered deceptive. Image by: sweetandsour / iStockphoto.com
Figure. Slot machines don't manipulate, they entertain, the gambling industry says. Image by: Photos.com
Articles from CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association Journal are provided here courtesy of Canadian Medical Association